Correlation is the
strength and direction of the relationship between two variables. It
is useful concept adapted from statistics to trading, and when used
for the analysis of market events it simply measures the tendency of
two assets to make similar movements over time. To
trade forex
we need to establish as many relationships between different
variables (between bonds and currencies, stocks, and forex, and
currencies themselves) as possible, and correlation is one way of
achieving this aim.
Correlation is expressed
as a number between -1 and 1. Values close to zero signify that
there is a weak correlation between the two variables. In other
words, a movement in one variable has no predictable reaction in the
other. Values close to -1 mean that there is a strong inverse
correlation. For example, when the variable x (say the EURUSD pair)
makes a five point movement to one side, the variable y (USDJPY
pair, in example) will make a movement of four-five pips in the
opposite direction. Finally, values close to 1 suggest positive
correlation. In this case, movements in one variable are matched by
movements by the other pair of similar or equal size, and in the
same direction
It is important to
understand that while correlation is often used by traders to
predict future price action, there is nothing in the definition of
correlation that says it will last over a specified period of time.
Correlation describes relationships between variables as they are,
but it can break down at any time for any reason. It is the duty of
the analyst to establish the causes of the relationships. This is
best done through fundamental analysis, but it is beyond the scope
of our present study.
In many cases
correlation is the manifestation of some underlying fundamental
dynamics. If a strong correlation is observed between two different
assets, this is either because of a strong, organic relationship
between those assets, (such as that between some commodities and the
CAD/USD pair), or because of very strong and long lasting trader
perceptions (such as the relationship between oil and the EUR/USD
pair). Regardless of the causes, it can be useful because it helps
us reduce the complexity of the market. Currency pairs that have a
very strong correlation between them, for example, will behave very
similarly, and can be regarded as being the same for most purposes.
Most traders make
use of correlation in carry trade strategies, or for managing risk
exposure through hedging in different currency pairs. If you want to
learn more about the subject, some broker websites and other forex
related sources offer
forex
courses which
you can take at your convenience. The important point is knowing
that correlation only describes the present market conditions, and
it never says anything certain about the future. It does make a
suggestion, but never an assertion.