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ETF or Invest in a Hedge Fund |
Emerging markets have been so hot in recent months
the term has become a misnomer. One could argue these markets have
already emerged. Indexes measuring equity performance from Brazil to
Mumbai have recorded double-digit gains unmatched by the "developed"
economies.
Articles appear daily referencing the long-term growth potential,
relatively low valuations, and general long term opportunities of sector
development within these economies.
There have been bumps in the road in these markets as evidenced by both
late February and mid-August of this year. However, bounce backs from
short term decimation have been nothing less than impressive. In fact,
these bounce backs rising to new highs after extreme sell offs is proof
of the continuing under-invested nature of the world's inevitable flows
into these markets. |
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Some investors have missed the emerging market run by continuously
looking for a pullback due to fear of 'buying the top.' Some others have
opted to invest in ETFs and mutual funds which have no shorting
characteristic. These investors generally believe that if you wish to be
involved in the so-called EM markets, a long position is preferable to a
hedged position. In addition, the liquidity you get from the mutual
funds is most often daily, and the ETFs nearly instantaneous, unlike
hedge funds!
So why invest in a hedge fund and pay higher fees if you can get beta
from mutual funds and ETFs? After all, even though people profess to
seek managers as alpha generators in this space, in truth, The Shadow
believes most investors have truly ridden a beta wave. But what if the
extremely positive environment for emerging markets hits more than a
bump in the road? And what if recession across many worldwide economies
actually becomes a reality rather than the ratings from a few heretic
economists?
In theory, hedge funds should have the ability to capture most of a
markets underlying gains, but should also be able to retain a
significant portion of those gains when reversals occur. The value of a
hedge fund manager is his or her ability to not just increase risk at
the appropriate time, but also reduce risk when necessary. This is the
quality that magnifies the vital role that hedge fund managers play in
the EM space, and gives them an advantage. "Trees don't grow to the sky"
even though one could question that mantra given the past few years
performance.
The situation is that the world's economic environment is most likely
changing. One could argue that many EM equity prices have far outpaced
economic developments in many countries.
Certainly, this can be evidenced by the 35% surge in India's Sensex
Index in the last two months, and the 50% increase in Shanghai shares
over the last six months. Cracks in the armor are already appearing, as
market regulators in places such as India and China have proposed
restrictive measures to help control the influx of foreign capital
flows. Volatility is likely to rise in such times.
So wake up Mr. Investor. Find a professional manager and stock picker
who can not only perform for you in good markets, but who also knows how
to protect gains. Yes, less expensive methods work well in markets when
trees try to grow to the sky. But pros are needed when volatilities rise
and uncertainty reigns.
Hedge funds posted their best month in years in September. The
Hedge Fund aggregate Average was +3.27% as most strategies benefited
from the mid-month U.S. Federal Reserve attempting to ease extremely
tight credit markets in September. Commodity related funds performed
extremely well as the Fed actions spurred inflationary concerns, but
excellent performance was not limited to commodity related strategies.
Equity markets surged and strategies which typically maintain long
biases were rewarded. Macro funds which often position themselves across
multiple asset classes appear to have taken advantage of the strong
moves seen in interest rate, currency and commodity markets. The global
macro strategy was one of a handful of strategies tracked to outperform
broad equity markets in the third quarter, returning +3.97% during the
difficult three month span.
Right now the bleeding edge of the crisis in confidence involves worries
that there may be large losses hidden inside so-called “structured
investment vehicles” — basically hedge funds that borrow from the public
and invest the proceeds in mortgage-backed securities. The new plan
would create a “super-fund” ... which would seek to restore confidence
by, um, borrowing from the public and investing the proceeds in
mortgage-backed securities.
Hedge funds are raising money in the stock market, aiming to persuade
investors that the industry is poised to profit from opportunities
created by the credit squeeze. FRM Credit Alpha, run by Financial Risk
Management, will announce plans to more than double its size by raising
£80m from a new share issue, just six months after it floated. Others
raising money include listed funds run by Thames River Capital, Dexion,
Cazenove and New Star. They believe they can now get easier access to
the hedge funds in which they invest.
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